Financial Accountability Office offers different opinion on Ontario deficit

A difference of opinion on the size of the Ontario government’s spending deficit.

Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy says improved revenues will bring this year’s deficit to $13.4 billion.

That is better than what was forecast in last spring’s budget.

The Financial Accountability Officer has different numbers.

It predicts the deficit to reach $11.1 billion, higher than its original figure.

The FAO bases its number on a projected 3.2% increase in spending combined with a 1.2% decline in revenue.

Both the Finance Minister and FAO acknowledge that Ontario’s Gross Domestic Product, the measure of economic activity, has slowed as U.S. trade tariffs show their impact on exports and business investment.

The FAO forecasts economic growth to remain stable in 2026 before showing a slight decrease between 2027 and 2030.

It also predicts continued deficit spending until then, but lowering to $6.3 billion by 2029-30.

The FAO says numerous risks and uncertainties could impact its outlook.

Strong economic growth could leave the province with a deficit as low as $2.3 billion by 2023.

A weaker economy could result in a $10.1 billion deficit.

Bethlenfalvy is scheduled to release a new provincial budget by March 31, 2026.